How To Facebook

Facebook Platform and the software/media quandary

O-Reilly ponders about the Facebook App platform, and shows a chart of application usage, which no surprise is highly concentrated among a few players.

It would be nice to see a chart of Windows consumer apps by comparison.  I’d imagine a similar curve, with MSFT, Adobe, Quicken, Yahoo, AOL, Google, couple media players and IM clients at the top, and most others far behind.

And it would be nice to see a chart of TV channels or magazine subscriptions by comparison.  The tail would likely be longer (especially if you look by brand rather than parent company).

These charts would then properly summarize the Facebook quandary (software platform vs. media platform)…

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Prediction - Facebook IM will launch and dominate

I’m surprised no one is talking about a potential IM app from Facebook.  I’d bet a lot of money they’ll launch one soon - and it’s going to crush.  The buddy list is already in place.

The idea of a buddy grid that lets you access your friends’ web services via IM client is a very nice complement to the existing Facebook website.  It will do very well. Just wait and see.

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Facebook acquires pre-launch Parakey

Facebook has made its first acquisition - Parakey. And yes, you’ve probably never heard of Parakey, because it pretty much never launched.

Parakey was led by Blake Ross and Joe Hewitt, the dynamic duo behind the Firefox browser. The start-up was funded in 2006 by Sequoia, and has been hush-hush ever since. Supposedly the service has to do with bringing web applications to the desktop. But all speculation points to Facebook buying the team rather than the technology per se. Who knows for sure…
It’s pretty fortunate that Parakey was able to secure was amounts to a successful exit, despite never achieving traction.

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ConnectU vs. Zuckerberg Lawsuit still pending

 VentureBeat and TechCrunch are covering the debate over whether Mark Zuckerberg’s litigious squabble with ConnectU could affect Facebook’s ability to IPO.

VentureBeat says:

The most likely worst case for Facebook: Zuckerberg and his investors will agree to settle this for many millions of dollars.

Well, not to mention the stain on Zuckerberg’s reputation, which in today’s celebrity/PR world, is not worth nothing.  Can you imagine the future Fortune articles comparing the origins of  Google, Yahoo, and Facebook?  It wouldn’t be pretty.

This case definitely should have been settled a long time ago.  Facebook’s exposure only goes up month over month, and Zuckerberg et al should have seen this roadblock coming from miles ahead.  Chalk it up as one of Facebook’s very few, very big mistakes to date.

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Facebook Status Update is already 90% of Twitter, with 100,000x the reach

Twitter is all the rage among the bloggerati, but it’s hard to imagine the service taking off in any massively meaningful fashion.  The Facebook Status Update captures most of Twitter’s appeal, executed within an even simpler feature.

Facebook already has integrated mobile support, RSS support, preference setting, etc.  There isn’t much left that’s both important and missing at this point.  And it’s also tough to envision how a Twitter plug-in could really supplant the well-ingrained status update.

The question begged by this line of thought is this - can leading-edge communication apps like Twitter create enough unique value to carve out meaningful niches in the social networking sphere?  If the Facebook platform executes well, then it will become significantly harder to do so.  Ultimately, my guess is that media services (Flixster, iLike, Slide) now look like better investment vehicles at this point because they add value to the social graph, rather than trying to replicate it.

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Facebook Lingo of the Day: The Status Update

THE STATUS UPDATE

What it is: A single message you broadcast to all your friends that simply lets them know what you’re doing at the exact moment you wrote the message.  This is sort-attention-span-story-telling at its finest.

What it’s for:  Describing your mood, letting people know you’re out of town, and getting yourself to show up in your friend’s news feed so they think of you.  It’s sort of like posting a brief message on your own Wall for all to see.

Tip: The best status reports are typically well-written, rather than informative.  Use your status update creatively, and remember, your friends want to be AMUSED.  When they want real news, they’ll read CNN.

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Facebook Lingo of the day: The Poke

THE POKE

What it is: A way to alert someone that you’re thinking of them. A poke is just a notification, it doesn’t contain its own message. So it’s the online equivalent of a smile or wave across a crowded room.

What it’s for: Basically flirting. You poke someone with the hope you get poked back. And you typically poke someone you’re not great friends with, or someone you don’t speak to a lot (because if you speak to the person, what’s the point of sending a silly notification?).
Tip: Don’t poke the same person repeatedly. It’s cute the first time, but then it’s just straight up annoying.

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Facebook Rumor: Microsoft trying to buy for $6 Billion - Facebook should ignore

Henry Blodget and Inside Microsoft debate whether Microsoft should offer $6 Billion for Facebook, and whether Facebook should accept.

Should Microsoft be willing to offer $6 Billion?  Yes.

Should Facebook accept?  Nope.

The company has hit escape velocity right now.  How many companies do you know of that hit this and then subsequently fell flat? Not many.  Actually I can name the one company because I used to work for its parent.  Good old AOL.  But there was a legal impediment there, and that’s a post for another time.

I personally don’t think Facebook should sell at all.  It’s on the path to becoming the next Yahoo! and this acquisition would likely divert it.  Beyond that, if Facebook were to entertain an acquisition by Microsoft, they could likely get $8-$9 Billion.  Why?  Because Facebook is worth an irrational amount to MSFT, and $10 Billion is just too many digits to ask for, so you gotta go less than that.

It’s not about the numbers.  Some analysts are probably crunching numbers on both sides of the table, but the numbers will be ignored until they tell the right story.

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Facebook Investors: We want Facebook startups too!

Inside Facebook reports Greylock, Accel, and Meritech - investors in Facebook - are also interested in funding new Facebook-related opportunties.

Well, as mentioned earlier this week, this makes a ton of sense for these funds. Certainly entrepreneurs would prefer to raise capital from vc’s with “insider access.” Insider access isn’t something diabolical or sneaky, it’s as simple as being in the know about what Facebook is working on, what they’re trying to support, avoid, etc. Or being able to call an exec and say, “hey, why is this app having a problem with XYZ on your site.”

That stuff matters.

So Bay will need to compensate for this with structural advantages (like making the deal sweeter for founders).

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Facebook Lingo of the day: The Wall

THE WALL

What it is: The online equivalent of the dry erase board college students put on their dorm-room doors. It’s the key component to your public profile.

What it’s for: Letting everyone know what you’ve been up to, or leaving messages to a friend that you want other people to see.
Tip: Leave Wall messages for friends of people you want to connect with. It’s more likely they’ll stumble upon you.

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